Navigating change - what ‘broadly similar outcomes’ mean for the new GCSEs
Oliver Stacey, Senior Qualifications Manager, explains what ‘broadly similar outcomes’ mean for the new GCSEs.
New GCSEs in 15 subjects have been introduced this term to support Curriculum for Wales. As schools deliver these qualifications for the first time it’s important for teachers and learners to have a clear understanding on the expectations around standards in these new qualifications.
Broadly similar outcomes
Our position is that outcomes in the new GCSEs should be broadly similar to the outcomes in the legacy (outgoing) ones. This means that for subjects where there is a GCSE qualification in both the legacy suite and the new suite, and the cohort taking the two qualifications is similar, then we would expect the proportion of learners achieving key grades, such as grade A and C, to be broadly similar at both a qualification and national level.
At an individual unit level within a qualification we would not necessarily expect results to be broadly similar between exam series. This is because entry patterns can vary between series, and outcomes can be impacted by factors such as the level of resitting that occurs. Additionally, we would not expect broadly similar outcomes at an individual school level. Numbers entered at a centre level are relatively small, and therefore subject to more volatility than national outcomes.
Why broadly similar?
We think it is more realistic to aim for results that are broadly similar at a national level rather than identical. This is because each year there is a different cohort of learners taking the qualifications and so you would expect some fluctuation in results. Furthermore, the experiences of this cohort of Year 10 learners will be different from previous years. For example, they have had a different curriculum experience from those in previous cohorts who were educated under the old curriculum. Additionally, the overall range of GCSE subjects available is different from previous years.
Taking a ‘broadly similar outcomes’ approach between the legacy and the new qualifications will help ensure fairness for learners. For example, it means that learners in the first few years of the new qualifications are not at a disadvantage in comparison to learners who have taken the legacy qualifications. This could occur for a number of reasons. Teachers may be less familiar with the new qualifications in the first few years, and there are fewer past exam papers and assessment materials for teachers and learners to draw from when preparing for the assessments.
Achieving broadly similar outcomes
Achieving broadly similar outcomes should be fairly straightforward in some subjects, such as GCSE Art and Design because the:
- qualification content hasn’t changed significantly
- qualification structure has remained the same
- assessment methods haven’t changed
- cohort of learners taking the qualification is likely to be stable
However, for subjects where qualifications have changed more significantly, achieving broadly similar outcomes will be more complicated. For example, the new GCSE in English language and literature qualifications, where the following factors add complexity.
Integration of subject content
The new qualification combines content from two existing qualifications (GCSE English language and GCSE English literature) which have different proportions of learners achieving grades A and C. Added to this there are more entries for GCSE English Language than GCSE English Literature and the overall profile of learners taking the two qualifications differs.
Therefore, careful thought needs to be given to which outcomes are broadly similar in the legacy qualifications and the results in the new GCSE English language and literature qualifications.
Double and single award qualifications
GCSE English language and literature will be available as both a single and a double award. At this stage we cannot be completely certain what proportion of learners will take the single and what proportion will take the double award.
Change to a unitised structure
The new qualification has a unitised structure, whereas the exiting GCSE language qualification has a linear structure. The unitised qualification will enable learners to resit units, which means they can potentially improve their scores on assessments.
Changes to the assessment
The new qualification also has a higher proportion of non-examination assessment, and this will impact results.
Given the changes to the qualifications, ‘broadly similar’ for the new integrated GCSE English language and literature qualifications is likely to lead to outcomes that are somewhere between typical outcomes in the current GSCE English language and GSCE English literature qualifications.
Similar considerations also apply to GCSE Cymraeg language and literature and to some extent for the new GCSE Mathematics and Numeracy (double award) qualification.
How will we achieve broadly similar outcomes?
When awarding the qualifications for the first time, WJEC's awarding committees will use their professional judgement when looking at how learners have performed on the assessments. Alongside this, they will also look at a range of statistical information to identify the grade boundaries that will deliver the broadly similar outcomes. The statistical evidence available will help guide the award. It will also protect learners from being disadvantaged where there may be a drop in performance, which is not uncommon when new qualifications are introduced.
Next steps
We know that the first unit assessments in a number of the new GCSEs will be taken by some Year 10 learners in summer 2026. We also know that schools will want further clarity beforehand on the approach to awarding. We are continuing to work with WJEC on the technical detail in terms of achieving broadly similar outcomes. We will provide further information about this in the spring term in advance of the first unit awards.