What is standard setting?

Standard setting on qualifications like GCSEs involves setting the grade boundaries, which are the minimum number of marks required to demonstrate the standard for a grade.

Our previous announcements on grading and standard setting

We announced in June 2023 that Made-for-Wales GCSEs would continue to be graded from A* to G. Following our consultation around the Made-for-Wales GCSEs, we published our decisions1 and set out the following initial policy position linked to GCSE grading standards:

Standards in the new set of GCSEs will be broadly similar to the standards in the current set of GCSE qualifications. This means that overall national results will be broadly similar. We have developed the approval criteria for new GCSEs to support this aim of securing broadly similar standards and outcomes.

Protecting the interests of learners and securing fairness are the primary reasons for ensuring that standards and outcomes for new GCSEs will be broadly similar to what they are now. Without actively pursuing this aim, it is more than likely the first few cohorts of learners to take the new qualifications would be unfairly disadvantaged compared to past and future learners. For example, their teachers will be less familiar with the new qualifications, and they will not have access to as many resources when compared to learners taking the outgoing qualifications, and to future learners who will take the new qualifications in years to come. Aiming for broadly similar standards and outcomes means that we do not expect results to significantly increase or decrease.

The changes to the design of the qualifications, for example with more non exam assessment in many subjects and a greater number of subjects having a unitised structure will mean that it is not realistic or desirable to have exactly the same standards and outcomes in the new set of GCSEs as the current ones. There have also been content changes to reflect the Curriculum. Additionally, there has been a change in the range of subjects available which will impact the attainment profile of entries for some subjects.

Securing broadly similar outcomes in the new set of GCSEs will support comparability between the old and the new set of GCSEs and help to maintain the currency and portability of the qualifications for learners. Once new GCSEs are established, we will adopt an approach to maintaining standards over time that will mean authentic changes in the overall performance of learners will be reflected in qualification results at a national level. In addition to our work on ensuring broad comparability between existing and new GCSEs, we are also considering comparability between the new, Made for Wales GCSEs and GCSEs taken in other jurisdictions.

 

Our approach to standard setting for the new GCSEs

The research report from OUCEA has been valuable in enabling us to check our initial policy position that standards in the new set of GCSEs will be broadly similar to the standards in the current set of GCSE qualifications before transition. This remains our policy position.

We will continue to use the standards approach referred to in the research as ‘attainment referencing’. This approach makes it possible to carry forward a consistent performance standard year on year within a subject, by adjusting grade boundaries for each assessment series to ensure that results reflect an equivalent level of attainment over time. To identify what equivalent levels of attainment look like, teams of experienced examiners review and compare samples of learner work across time supported by statistical evidence. This approach has the benefit of allowing GCSE results to vary over time, for example by responding to authentic increases or decreases in learner performance in a robust and credible way.

The approach to standard setting during the transition to new GCSEs will be designed so that learners taking new GCSEs should not be disadvantaged in the results they receive just because the qualification designs are less familiar to them and their teachers. In practice this may mean temporarily setting lower grade boundaries so that learners taking new qualifications are not disadvantaged by the grades that they receive. This will mean that, as a group, learners will receive outcomes similar to those that they would have received had they followed the course before reform and taken the old qualification.

We agree with the findings of the research that aspects of the design of the new GCSEs will make this process challenging. This is not just linked to having more unitised designs, but also more digital assessment, more non-examination assessment, combining subjects and introducing new subjects with no obvious predecessor (such as Social Studies and Dance).

We have a planned programme of work to inform the approach to standards in the new suite of GCSEs. One aspect of this is how the relationship between performance and attainment might be exemplified. 

Does this policy position apply to other qualifications that will be available alongside GCSEs?

This policy position only applies to GCSEs. We will confirm at the appropriate time how grading standards will work in other Made-for-Wales qualifications that will be available.